Page 60 - Unfair To Care 2024 - Who Cares Wins

THE ‘SOCIAL CARE VOTE’ IN MARGINAL SEATS
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ‘SOCIAL CARE VOTE’ IN MARGINAL CONSTITUENCIES, PARTICULARLY THOSE WHO HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PROBLEMS OF STAFF SHORTAGES CREATED BY LOW AND UNFAIR PAY, COULD HAVE A MARKED IMPACT, AND BE A CRITICAL FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE OUTCOME OF THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION.
SECTION 8: MOBILISING THE SOCIAL CARE VOTE
The impact of low and unfair pay on people’s voting intentions will be even stronger among those with direct experience of the social care system. This ‘social care vote’ is large and could be very influential. The total number of people with direct experience of social care in England is around 2.6 million people:
In 2023 the adult social care sector employed 1.52 million people68
In 2021/22 a total of 1.04 million people received publicly funded social care (818,000 long-
term care and 224,000 short-term care)69
People’s experiences of social care as a deliverer or receiver of care and support will vary, but there are around 2.6 million people for whom social care has a direct impact on their lives. The YouGov survey for this report suggests that 80% of people who draw on care services,
or are connected to care via a family member or close friend, have had a negative experience as a result of staff shortages in social care services.
Of course, the choice of who people vote for will not be determined solely by their views on social care, but their direct or indirect experience of care services will likely be one of the more important factors influencing their particular decision.
Crucially, not all constituencies are equally important to winning a general election. In most elections it is the marginal seats with small majorities where elections are won or lost.
The 2.6 million people with direct experience of delivering or drawing on social care constitute around 4,900 votes in each of the 533 constituencies in England. This is around 10% of the average voter turnout in England (given an average turnout of around 50,000 (67%) in the average electorate of 75,000 people).
Across the UK, 141 seats out of 650 were won by a margin of less than 10 percentage points.70 There have been a number of boundary changes to constituencies since 2019 but this indicates that MPs in nearly 100 constituencies in England have majorities of less than 10% and are regarded as marginal seats, as they would only need a 5% swing to change.
Community Integrated Care urges all political parties to consider the impact of this data ahead of the next general election.
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68. ’The state of the adult social care sector and workforce in England’, Skills for Care, October 2023
69. ‘Key facts and figures about adult social care’, The King’s Fund, May 2023
70. ’General election 2019: Marginality’, House of Commons Library, January 2020